Kitchen Sink Regression and Horse Racing

I recently had a paper rejected due to the use of parameter horse racing and kitchen sink regression. This article describes a critical issue with that rejection criteria. A kitchen sink regression occurs when an analyst takes all available data and regresses it against some dependent variable. This risks overfitting where relationships are found in … Read more Kitchen Sink Regression and Horse Racing

Coronavirus Case Data Illustrates Heteroskedasticity

Coronavirus statistical case data is an ideal illustration of the concept of statistical heteroskedasticity. Test coverage and data quality has increased over time. The reliability of data is increasing over time and measurement error variation is decreasing. Measurement error was originally high due to differing policy, testing, and reporting implementations by state and at the … Read more Coronavirus Case Data Illustrates Heteroskedasticity

Contra Sample Splitting

Marek Kirejczyk discussed a negative trend in software development called Hype Driven Development. I’m here to argue the same thing happens in data, econometrics, and academia. I’ll give two examples: the p-value and sample splitting. My real focus here is to convince the reader that sample splitting is a trendy trick but it is in … Read more Contra Sample Splitting

Log Growth Rates: Stop Doing That

In economics and also widely in statistics and data science, it is considered acceptable to use log growth rates. In fact, you would have a hard time passing my intro Ph.D. macro class without them. But they shouldn’t be used. The validity of how log growth rates are often used depends on a simplification. The … Read more Log Growth Rates: Stop Doing That

An Example of Quantified Opinion

This article demonstrates the method of quantified opinion. Quantified opinion is a logic-based probabilistic method, a field of statistics, which constructs a statistical model from the opinions of individuals. Quantified opinion is unique from something like a survey or poll because it is particularly meant to address extremely low sample sizes ( 1 < n … Read more An Example of Quantified Opinion

The Underappreciation of Small Sample Sizes

This article is a discussion of statistical methods and it argues that statistical analysis can and should be utilized more often for small sample sizes. The Unremarkable Difference Between n = 3 and n = 30 There is a large difference between 0 and 3 observations. There is not much difference, however, between a sample … Read more The Underappreciation of Small Sample Sizes

6 Logical Principles

This article will cover 6 logical insights which are applicable to scientific analysis and philosophy. 1 – The Expanded Principle of Non-Contradiction Two nonequivalent statements cannot simultaneously be true and contradictory. The principle of non-contradiction holds that if A is true, A’ (that is, the negation of A) cannot also be true. An example would … Read more 6 Logical Principles

Statistics Evolved

This article will attack two problems in statistics. The two problems are the selection bias in sampling and the arbitrary nature of common alpha levels. Most statisticians know that the ideal way to sample is a simple random sample, but what if that simple random sample is arguably not representative of the whole population? The … Read more Statistics Evolved

Calling Didier’s Economic Bluff

Tldr – While Didier’s talk is interesting, he fails to sufficiently defend or even describe his methodology. There is a great debate in economics about the ability to control economic systems. The Austrian, Classical and Free Market views emphasize that markets are not fully controllable. These views are opposed by Neokeynesianism which, while allowing that … Read more Calling Didier’s Economic Bluff

The Genesis 1:1 Apology and Mathematical Trust

“If the first verse is true the rest of the Bible is at least believable.” That is a phrase often used by Christian apologist and radio show host Frank Turek. I have worked this idea into a very robust and widely useful philosophical point in defense of the Christian faith. I think Turek was getting … Read more The Genesis 1:1 Apology and Mathematical Trust