Applied Unknowns Analysis

One of the major Austrian critiques of certain kinds of analysis focuses on uncertainty. You can make a forecast based on certain data, but something unexpected might come along and muck everything up. In the past I have described ways of overcoming this issue. These article contains 3 sections which do the following: Argues for … Read more Applied Unknowns Analysis

Utility and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility

This article describes cardinal and ordinal utility as I understand them and then argues that analysis under cardinal utility is more productive. I also argue for the plausibility of interpersonal comparisons of utility. Ordinal and Cardinal Utility When the preference of A to B is understood in as ordinal we may simply suppose that an … Read more Utility and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility

Rational Estimation and Price Under Uncertainty

This article talks about ways to deal with uncertainty, and I will also briefly define the concept in contrast with simple risk. Definitions: Uncertainty vs Risk Rational Estimation without Uncertainty Rational Estimation with Uncertainty 1 – Definitions: Uncertainty vs Risk Uncertainty and risk are both not simple economic phenomena. They are generic elements of complex … Read more Rational Estimation and Price Under Uncertainty

A Priori Probability: Larger Values

This article will cover how to handle a priori statistical or probabilistic reasoning when the estimated value is larger than the baseline value. In this article I show that for any probability P | 0 < P < 1, the risk-minimizing estimate for P is .5. This can be expanded to proportional estimates of frequency, … Read more A Priori Probability: Larger Values

An Example of Quantified Opinion

This article demonstrates the method of quantified opinion. Quantified opinion is a logic-based probabilistic method, a field of statistics, which constructs a statistical model from the opinions of individuals. Quantified opinion is unique from something like a survey or poll because it is particularly meant to address extremely low sample sizes ( 1 < n … Read more An Example of Quantified Opinion