Kitchen Sink Regression and Horse Racing

I recently had a paper rejected due to the use of parameter horse racing and kitchen sink regression. This article describes a critical issue with that rejection criteria. A kitchen sink regression occurs when an analyst takes all available data and regresses it against some dependent variable. This risks overfitting where relationships are found in … Read more

An Example of Quantified Opinion

This article demonstrates the method of quantified opinion. Quantified opinion is a logic-based probabilistic method, a field of statistics, which constructs a statistical model from the opinions of individuals. Quantified opinion is unique from something like a survey or poll because it is particularly meant to address extremely low sample sizes ( 1 < n … Read more

6 Logical Principles

This article will cover 6 logical insights which are applicable to scientific analysis and philosophy. 1 – The Expanded Principle of Non-Contradiction Two nonequivalent statements cannot simultaneously be true and contradictory. The principle of non-contradiction holds that if A is true, A’ (that is, the negation of A) cannot also be true. An example would … Read more

CAE Interpretive Proof – Traditional Marriage (2/2, Left-Handed Proof)

This article will argue that Traditional Marriage is an explaining factor of per capita GDP. This is an example of a left-handed proof using Traditional Marriage. A left-handed proof constitutes half of the CAE Interpretive Proof. While the right-handed proof is a philosophical or theological proof, the left-handed proof is meant as proof based on … Read more

Occam’s Razor: You’re Doing it Wrong

Occam’s (or Ockham’s) Razor has been called a heuristic device. Heuristic means a guide or suggestion. It appears in various forms including versions which are useless tautologies, supposedly useful rules of thumb, fallacious positivist philosophy and lastly it is occasionally used properly as a distillery for information. One example would be in the video from … Read more

Methodology for Bitcoin Valuation as a Fiat Hedge

This article goes over my methodology for a bitcoin valuation which resulted in my guest article on the Mineforman website here. The spreadsheet I used, complete with all my little self-notes and summaries, is available in its original Gnumeric format here, and in the more common Excel format here. Simple Excel conversion resulted in some errors … Read more