Three Exceptions in Systematic Model Derivation

I recently wrote about a systematic, bias-minimizing approach to exploratory data analysis and model identification. This article clarifies my preferred process and adds two exceptions to the typical process. I begin by collecting data of interest. The data sets aren’t randomly assembled, but neither are they assembled with a particular operationalization in mind. I am … Read more Three Exceptions in Systematic Model Derivation

Experimental Identification of the Preference Effect

The below was a term paper for Dr. Stratmann’s ECON 895, “Empirical Micro Economics,” also known as Microeconometrics, Fall 2016 at GMU. The figures referenced are in the Word document but not in the website article. Download the Word document here. It’s better formatted anyway I think. Abstract Prices, the distribution of income, and individual … Read more Experimental Identification of the Preference Effect

Forecasting and Austrian Economics

Note: Below the dash is the text of my 2016 Fall Semester Paper for a Ph.D. class called Theory of the Market Process I. The actual paper file can be downloaded here, and it has some better formatting applied. Forecasting and Austrian Economics John Vandivier ABSTRACT The Austrian School has received criticism for opposition to … Read more Forecasting and Austrian Economics

Contra Sample Splitting

Marek Kirejczyk discussed a negative trend in software development called Hype Driven Development. I’m here to argue the same thing happens in data, econometrics, and academia. I’ll give two examples: the p-value and sample splitting. My real focus here is to convince the reader that sample splitting is a trendy trick but it is in … Read more Contra Sample Splitting

Hal Varian Makes Sense of NoSQL

The sexy new thing in IT is apparently NoSQL, but I can’t stand the stuff. I tried Couch and Mongo but I didn’t like it for reasons I’ll discuss in this article. More important than my opinion, though, is Hal Varian’s opinion. I was glad to see him reinforce my priors. In Big Data: New … Read more Hal Varian Makes Sense of NoSQL