Explanations from Rapid Change in Science

In the video below, beginning at the 4-minute mark, Bret and Heather bring up the story of Dry Falls. This is an interesting story that demonstrates the way explanations from rapid change are viewed in the academy and in science. The story of Dry Falls bodes well for Bret and Heather in the context of … Read more

Contra Flattening the Curve: Epidemiology vs Economics

This article discusses a major problem with epidemiological models that utilize a fixed value for healthcare system capacity. The problem is that healthcare system capacity isn’t fixed. As in all other economic goods and services, supply increases with demand. Regulators, policymakers, and academics are all too often acting under the assumption of fixed healthcare capacity, … Read more

A Quick Note on the COVID Death Rate in the US

Political leaders have already jumped to leverage this crisis into pork for their interest, passing a $2 T package which is 50-80% nonsense. I’ll list some of the problematic line-items later in this post. My key point in this post is to highlight the fact that the US had the world’s best healthcare response before … Read more

Coronavirus Case Data Illustrates Heteroskedasticity

Coronavirus statistical case data is an ideal illustration of the concept of statistical heteroskedasticity. Test coverage and data quality has increased over time. The reliability of data is increasing over time and measurement error variation is decreasing. Measurement error was originally high due to differing policy, testing, and reporting implementations by state and at the … Read more