Elasticity and Efficiency

Does the concept of economic mobility from a firm perspective contradict the notion of robustness implying efficiency? That is, if firms are rapidly and elastically created, used, and destroyed for short-term purposes, should we consider them inefficient? It seems to me that elastic firm dynamics, where a firm is rapidly created, utilized, and destroyed, are … Read more Elasticity and Efficiency

Affluenza, Preference Ratcheting, and Social Spoiling

This article is about a single concept which can be described concisely or named a few ways. I think about this in common parlance as getting spoiled. It’s a negative subsidiary of the income effect where the preference change can be viewed in some sense as inefficient. To illustrate: I recently got an email for … Read more Affluenza, Preference Ratcheting, and Social Spoiling

Three Exceptions in Systematic Model Derivation

I recently wrote about a systematic, bias-minimizing approach to exploratory data analysis and model identification. This article clarifies my preferred process and adds two exceptions to the typical process. I begin by collecting data of interest. The data sets aren’t randomly assembled, but neither are they assembled with a particular operationalization in mind. I am … Read more Three Exceptions in Systematic Model Derivation

The Collected Works of Ludwig von Mises

A friend of mine named Ash Navabi recently mentioned: Everyone knows I’m a big fan of the economist Ludwig von Mises. One great thing is that nearly everything Mises ever wrote is available for free online. But what’s always frustrated me was the fact that there was no single, complete, comprehensive source that collected all … Read more The Collected Works of Ludwig von Mises

Kitchen Sink Regression and Horse Racing

I recently had a paper rejected due to the use of parameter horse racing and kitchen sink regression. This article describes a critical issue with that rejection criteria. A kitchen sink regression occurs when an analyst takes all available data and regresses it against some dependent variable. This risks overfitting where relationships are found in … Read more Kitchen Sink Regression and Horse Racing

A Dissertation Update

I have been working on a PhD at George Mason University since Fall 2015. This article summarizes current progress. I began working on the dissertation in 2018. GMU has a useful progress tracking tool here. The deadline to advance to candidacy is 6 years, so I’m pushing that. To graduate has a deadline of 9 … Read more A Dissertation Update

Contra Flattening the Curve: Epidemiology vs Economics

This article discusses a major problem with epidemiological models that utilize a fixed value for healthcare system capacity. The problem is that healthcare system capacity isn’t fixed. As in all other economic goods and services, supply increases with demand. Regulators, policymakers, and academics are all too often acting under the assumption of fixed healthcare capacity, … Read more Contra Flattening the Curve: Epidemiology vs Economics

A Quick Note on the COVID Death Rate in the US

Political leaders have already jumped to leverage this crisis into pork for their interest, passing a $2 T package which is 50-80% nonsense. I’ll list some of the problematic line-items later in this post. My key point in this post is to highlight the fact that the US had the world’s best healthcare response before … Read more A Quick Note on the COVID Death Rate in the US

Coronavirus Case Data Illustrates Heteroskedasticity

Coronavirus statistical case data is an ideal illustration of the concept of statistical heteroskedasticity. Test coverage and data quality has increased over time. The reliability of data is increasing over time and measurement error variation is decreasing. Measurement error was originally high due to differing policy, testing, and reporting implementations by state and at the … Read more Coronavirus Case Data Illustrates Heteroskedasticity