Bitcoin Price Forecast Update, 11/21/18

The price of bitcoin downwardly broke the 6k barrier last week. This was an unexpected event for me, so I need to update my price movement expectations. I dropped this rough reanalysis on my Facebook after the event:

The Great Drought I’m referring to was the sustained price decline which can be viewed in the below graph from coinmarketcap.com:

During that crash the price decline from a top around 1000 to a bottom around 200. An 80% decline from our recent top around 20k would put the bottom around 4k. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go a bit further below 4k but I would be surprised if it sustains below that.

Both the self-parallel with prior spike and crash and also the comparison with gold commodity’s post-options crash seem to anticipate recovery early to mid next year, so I remain optimistic in the longer term.

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