Marek Kirejczyk discussed a negative trend in software development called Hype Driven Development. I’m here to argue the same thing happens in data, econometrics, and academia. I’ll give two examples: the p-value and sample splitting. My real focus here is…
Tag: statistics
Log Growth Rates: Stop Doing That
In economics and also widely in statistics and data science, it is considered acceptable to use log growth rates. In fact, you would have a hard time passing my intro Ph.D. macro class without them. But they shouldn’t be used.…
Tagged with: economic growth, growth, growth rates, log growth, logarithmic growth, math, statistics
An Example of Quantified Opinion
This article demonstrates the method of quantified opinion. Quantified opinion is a logic-based probabilistic method, a field of statistics, which constructs a statistical model from the opinions of individuals. Quantified opinion is unique from something like a survey or poll…
The Underappreciation of Small Sample Sizes
This article is a discussion of statistical methods and it argues that statistical analysis can and should be utilized more often for small sample sizes. The Unremarkable Difference Between n = 3 and n = 30 There is a large…
6 Logical Principles
This article will cover 6 logical insights which are applicable to scientific analysis and philosophy. 1 – The Expanded Principle of Non-Contradiction Two nonequivalent statements cannot simultaneously be true and contradictory. The principle of non-contradiction holds that if A is…
Tagged with: axiom, bias, deduction, deductive, innocence, interpretation, logic, method, non-contradiction, noncontradiction, principle, reasoning, science, statistical, statistics
Statistics Evolved
This article will attack two problems in statistics. The two problems are the selection bias in sampling and the arbitrary nature of common alpha levels. Most statisticians know that the ideal way to sample is a simple random sample, but…
Tagged with: alpha, automated, bias, cnu, confidence, confidence interval, correction, corrective, cuccinelli, emerson, expected value, interview bias, math, polling, risk, selection bias, simple random sample, srs, statistics, strata, stratified, Virginia
Calling Didier’s Economic Bluff
Tldr – While Didier’s talk is interesting, he fails to sufficiently defend or even describe his methodology. There is a great debate in economics about the ability to control economic systems. The Austrian, Classical and Free Market views emphasize that…
Tagged with: analysis, Austrian, Didier, economics, federal reserve, free market, money, Neokeynesian, policy, prediction, quantitative easing, Sornette, statistics
The Genesis 1:1 Apology and Mathematical Trust
“If the first verse is true the rest of the Bible is at least believable.” That is a phrase often used by Christian apologist and radio show host Frank Turek. I have worked this idea into a very robust and…
Tagged with: 1:1, apologist, christian, expectation, faith, Genesis, jew, Old Testament, rational, statistics, study, tanakh, trust, truth
A Short Recommendation and Defense of Homeschooling
The case for homeschooling is simple: It produces superior results compared to public or even private schooling in virtually every statistically normalized study ever done. Here’s one comprehensive study. It achieves those results for a tiny sliver of the cost.…
Tagged with: A Short Recommendation and Defense of Homeschooling, change, education, government, homeschool, improve, learn, mandate, policy, poor, poverty, reform, school, statistics, tax, teach, teachers, teaching
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