This article will discuss the realistic possibility of Cuccinelli winning the VA governor’s race and exactly how that could happen.
For I while there I thought this wasn’t a race at all. Cuccinelli was in the 30%s of vote share at one time and I was beginning to see online targeted ads from McCauliffe. Usually when a party targets ads toward likely voters of the opposing party it means they are already solid on their base and are trying to pick off or suppress opposing votes. That’s usually an indication of a landslide coming.
With the new polling data out things have changed. Cuccinelli is only down by an easily swingable 2%. That’s within the margin of error! This made me think that the ad targeting might just be poorly done targeting. Although I usually vote Republican I am living in a heavy Democratic geography. Perhaps what I once thought was a sign of sure defeat for Cuccinelli is in reality support for the hypothesis that McCauliffe’s campaign is not winner material.
The good news doesn’t stop there. The libertarian candidate is polling about 10%. This is good news because Cuccinelli is far closer to the libertarian ideal than McCauliffe is and in the face of a sure loss many would-be libertarians will find themselves voting for Cuccinelli. Sarvis formerly ran for elected office as a Republican and isn’t really very different from Cuccinelli himself. It would be really great if he would conceded and endorse Cuccinelli.
If Cuccinelli loses I would have no problem laying the blame squarely on Sarvis. We are only several days away from the election and there is one last thing that will give Cuccinelli a blast forward, quite possibly forward enough to win. Ron Paul will be campaigning with Cuccinelli this week and I have heard several big name Republicans will make an appearance as well.
In conclusion, Cuccinelli can win because he is already within the margin of error of winning and a combination of forces could give him a positive boost:
- Libertarians voting for Cuccinelli, in particular if Sarvis concedes or if Ron Paul brings them over.
- Republicans getting excited and turning out in big numbers from the good polling news and upcoming Republican all-star last ditch campaign effort.
- Democrats not turning out because the polling data, Ron Paul and the other Republicans kill their buzz.