Month: December 2014

Legal Discretion Creates Incentives

Legal discretion creates economic incentives which distort the economy. Let’s talk about what that means. Legal discretion can occur in courts, in the executive branch, by police officers, and by government prosecutors.In each case there is a resource constraint on

Combining Trends in Marriage and Christianity

Our recent article discussed trends in the marriage and divorce rate. An earlier article discussed trends in the Christian share of the population. Are these two related? I think so. Could it be that a declining marriage and divorce rates

Recent Marriage Trends

A recent piece in the New York Times points out that the marriage rate is falling. It is not 50% and has not been for some time. People married in the 2000s have the lowest divorce rates since the 1960s.

Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race – NYTimes.com

Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race – NYTimes.com. John’s Note: This article is a must-read for anyone interested in how political polls are conducted. Interestingly, Nate Silver of 538 shows that internet-based polls have among

The Free Market is the Democratic Republic

This article is a bit of political philosophy. Basically, I argue that a free market combines principals of democracy and republicanism. Plato’s The Republic is the place where any real discussion of republicanism begins, but few Republicans have ever glanced

An Example of Quantified Opinion

This article demonstrates the method of quantified opinion. Quantified opinion is a logic-based probabilistic method, a field of statistics, which constructs a statistical model from the opinions of individuals. Quantified opinion is unique from something like a survey or poll

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Goal: 68 Million New Voters, Healthcare be Damned | Rob Cunningham USARob Cunningham USA

Goal: 68 Million New Voters, Healthcare be Damned | Rob Cunningham USARob Cunningham USA John’s Notes: This article claims that the real motive behind the creation of Obamacare is not a desire to improve healthcare, but a desire to win

On the CIA torture report | TheHill

On the CIA torture report | TheHill John’s Notes: This article is my first piece published in a high ranking media outlet. It argues that Republicans should come out in support of the CIA torture report’s release and should advocate

Heritage: Downward Trending Abortion Rate

Abortion Rate | Index of Culture and Opportunity: John’s Notes: There is some good news which is that the U.S. abortion rate has been consistently and significantly dropping for more than 10 years at this point. But why? The abortion

The Underappreciation of Small Sample Sizes

This article is a discussion of statistical methods and it argues that statistical analysis can and should be utilized more often for small sample sizes. The Unremarkable Difference Between n = 3 and n = 30 There is a large

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